Run: 2026-05-06__011__sellside-hunt-routine-design · Date: 2026-05-06 · Phase 1 author
Phase 1 verdict: STRONG_SUPPLY. Owner-aged sell-side supply is genuinely abundant for the 65+ owner-operator at the $1M to $5M EBITDA band. The "silver tsunami" is real. PE roll-up activity has primed owners to consider exits but most have not been formally approached. CII pest-control and pool-service hits visible in #dialing-for-dollars confirm cold-dial conversion at this profile. TAM math: ~50,000 to 70,000 dialable sell-side prospects across the 5 verticals, supporting a year+ of campaign at 4 dialers x 200/day x 250 days before list refresh.
Owner-age density estimates (25-30% for pest, 20-25% for HVAC, etc.) are sourced from association demographics (NPMA, ACCA) which lag actual reality by 2-3 years. The "silver tsunami" thesis assumes founders age in place at their company; some have already sold quietly to PE without public signal. Real hit rate on the dial may be 50-70% of the demographic estimate.
Pattern observed: every "saturated by PE" complaint actually means PE is buying at the $5M+ EBITDA band. Sub-$5M is still wildly fragmented and the public PE narrative is sellers' best motivation to sign with CII. The buyer-side fatigue we eliminated in run 009 (Jonathan's septic, hood cleaning) is the inverse signal for sell-side: where buyers compete, sellers get courted, multiples rise, and CII closes faster.
Sell-side supply across 5 well-chosen verticals comfortably supports a year+ of campaign at 4 dialers x 200 calls/day before list refresh.
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