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HR.COM FAIR MARKET VALUATION ANALYSIS

Source: deal-docs/03-reports-and-analysis/hrcom_valuation_analysis.md

HR.COM FAIR MARKET VALUATION ANALYSIS

Prepared by Next Chapter M&A Advisory

March 26, 2026


METHODOLOGY

This valuation uses three approaches per asset:
1. Comparable Transaction Analysis -- real M&A deals in the same sector
2. Revenue/EBITDA Multiple Analysis -- industry benchmark multiples
3. Debbie's Own Stated Values -- from the March 23, 2026 call (consensus-verified by 3 independent LLMs)

All numbers marked (CONFIRMED) came directly from Debbie McGrath on the call.
All numbers marked (EXTERNAL) came from public sources (Latka, LinkedIn, web) and must be verified with Debbie before use in any client-facing document.


VERIFIED FACTS (3-LLM Consensus: OpenAI + Mistral + Groq)

Fact Value Source
Company name HR.com CONFIRMED
Company age 27 years (founded ~1999) CONFIRMED
Business type B2B digital media / community platform for HR professionals CONFIRMED
Profitable Yes CONFIRMED
Revenue (current) NOT STATED GAP -- must ask Debbie
Revenue (external) $42.6M (2024, Latka) EXTERNAL -- UNCONFIRMED
Employees (external) ~299 (LinkedIn) EXTERNAL -- UNCONFIRMED
Registered members (external) 1.9M+ (Latka) EXTERNAL -- UNCONFIRMED
EBITDA margin ~20% (Ewing stated, Debbie did not correct) IMPLIED
Media revenue multiple 1.2x-1.5x revenue CONFIRMED
HR vendor directory 50,000 vendors CONFIRMED
Prior exit (2022) 8 offers, $9M low, ~$45M high CONFIRMED
Domain value estimate $15M-$20M (from domain brokers) CONFIRMED
Media business standalone value $7M-$10M CONFIRMED
My People revenue $250K/year (from HR.com) CONFIRMED
My People clients interested 35 HR tech companies CONFIRMED
My People going live First 7 in ~45 days CONFIRMED
FORJ raised / returned $8M raised, $1M returned to Debbie CONFIRMED
COVID activations 260 major associations CONFIRMED
Dev team size (My People) 18 people (Debbie's side) CONFIRMED
Domain broker commission Negotiated from 20% to 10% (not signed) CONFIRMED
Previous company sold CEO Group Inc. sold to Washington Post/Kaplan CONFIRMED (external)

ASSET 1: hr.com DOMAIN NAME

Comparable Domain Sales

Domain Sale Price Year Buyer Notes
AI.com ~$70M (reported) Jan 2026 Unknown All-time record for domain sale
FB.com $8.5M 2010 Facebook Two-letter .com
IG.com $4.7M 2013 Instagram Two-letter .com
Sex.com $13M 2010 Clover Holdings Category-defining
Insurance.com $35.6M 2010 QuinStreet Category keyword
Voice.com $30M 2019 Block.one Two-letter+category
Cars.com IPO valuation ~$2.5B 2017 Public Category-defining
Hotels.com Part of $1.1B Expedia deal 2003 Expedia Category-defining

Valuation for hr.com Domain

Key factors:
- One of only 676 two-letter .com domains in existence
- HR is a $42-54B technology market (2025)
- Category-defining: hr.com = human resources
- Agentic AI use case: single entry point for all HR systems
- Named buyers already circling (SAP, Workday, Oracle, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Deloitte, Accenture, PwC)

Debbie's stated range: $15M-$20M (CONFIRMED -- from two brokers who sell "90% of two-letter domains")

Our assessment:
- Floor: $12M (conservative, below broker estimates)
- Base: $18M (midpoint of broker range)
- Bull: $30M+ (if AI company bidding war, closer to AI.com trajectory)

For fair market value purposes: $18M


ASSET 2: HR.com MEDIA BUSINESS

Revenue Estimation

Debbie did NOT state revenue on the call. We have two data points to triangulate:

Method 1 -- Debbie's own valuation backward:
- She said the media business is worth "$7M-$10M" standalone
- She said media companies trade at "1.2x-1.5x revenue"
- Implied revenue: $7M / 1.5x = $4.7M to $10M / 1.2x = $8.3M
- Implied revenue range: $4.7M-$8.3M

Method 2 -- External source (Latka):
- $42.6M revenue (2024)
- But this likely includes ALL revenue across all entities
- If My People is $250K and domain has no separate revenue, media = $42.35M
- This contradicts Debbie's own "7-10M" valuation unless the multiple is much lower

Method 3 -- 2022 offer context:
- Highest offer was ~$45M for the whole bundle (without separate domain valuation)
- If domain is $15-20M, media + My People = $25-30M
- At 1.2-1.5x revenue, that implies revenue of $17-25M
- But the business was "a lot bigger" in 2022

Reconciliation:
The $42.6M Latka figure may be accurate for total platform revenue, but Debbie's $7-10M valuation for "the media business stripped out" likely reflects that much of the revenue is tied to the hr.com brand/domain. If you rebrand and lose the domain traffic, revenue drops significantly. This is a critical distinction for the valuation.

Conservative approach (what we can defend):
- Use Debbie's own $7-10M valuation for the media business stripped of the domain
- This is the number she would agree with
- If the $42.6M revenue figure is confirmed, the combined domain+media value is much higher

Comparable Transaction Multiples

Company Deal Year Revenue Multiple
Industry Dive Sold to Informa 2022 ~$110M 4.8x rev / 11-15x EBITDA
Penton Media Sold to Informa 2016 ~$390M 3-4x rev / 11x EBITDA
HCI Sold to Simplify Compliance 2022 Undisclosed N/A (HR media direct comp)

B2B media benchmark: 3-5x revenue, 10-13x EBITDA

Valuation Scenarios for Media Business

Scenario A -- Standalone media (domain sold separately):
Using Debbie's stated $7-10M range.
- Floor: $7M
- Base: $8.5M
- Bull: $10M

Scenario B -- Media + Domain bundled (if $42.6M revenue confirmed):
Using industry multiples on confirmed revenue:
- At 1.5x revenue: $63.9M
- At 3x revenue (Industry Dive level): $127.8M
- At 20% EBITDA ($8.5M EBITDA), 10x: $85M

For fair market value (conservative, standalone): $8.5M
For fair market value (bundled with domain, if revenue confirmed): $45M-$65M


ASSET 3: MY PEOPLE (Community SaaS Platform)

Comparable Valuations

Company Valuation Revenue Multiple Notes
Bevy $325M $15.9M 20x VC-stage, community events
Circle.so $200-250M $27.7M ARR 9x White-label community
Hivebrite $57M raised $21.9M ~5x implied Community management
Higher Logic $185M raised $80M+ ARR ~4-5x B2B community (mature)

My People Valuation

Current state:
- Revenue: $250K/year (from HR.com -- CONFIRMED)
- Not self-sustaining (Debbie is funding it)
- 35 HR tech clients interested, 7 going live
- 22 years of technology development
- Full rebuild in 2023 (TypeScript, Node.js, React)
- 18-person dev team
- COVID proof: 260 activations, ADP community (10K devs), Michelle Obama

Valuation approach:
At $250K revenue, traditional multiples don't apply. This is a pre-revenue / early-revenue SaaS asset. Value comes from:
1. The IP (22 years of development, full 2023 rewrite)
2. The pipeline (35 interested clients, 7 onboarding)
3. The proof of concept (260 COVID activations)
4. The competitive moat (data ownership vs. LinkedIn/Discourse)

Comparable early-stage community SaaS: 8-15x projected revenue
- If 7 clients each pay $50K/year = $350K ARR in 6 months
- If 35 clients convert at $50K = $1.75M ARR in 18 months
- At 10x projected ARR: $3.5M-$17.5M

Conservative valuation:
- Floor: $2M (IP + pipeline value)
- Base: $5M (with early client traction)
- Bull: $15M (if 35 clients convert + new verticals)

For fair market value purposes: $5M


COMBINED FAIR MARKET VALUE

Conservative (Standalone Assets, Pre-Verification)

Asset Floor Base Bull
hr.com Domain $12M $18M $30M
HR.com Media Business $7M $8.5M $10M
My People Platform $2M $5M $15M
TOTAL $21M $31.5M $55M

If $42.6M Revenue Confirmed (Bundled Approach)

Approach Value Multiple
1.5x revenue (Debbie's stated media multiple) $63.9M Conservative
3x revenue (Industry Dive comp) $127.8M Moderate
EBITDA 10x (at 20% margin = $8.5M) $85M EBITDA-based
+ Domain premium ($18M) +$18M Separate
+ My People ($5M) +$5M Separate

Bundled range: $87M-$151M


RECOMMENDED FAIR MARKET VALUE ("x") FOR FEE STRUCTURE

We recommend using the conservative standalone total as the baseline "x":

x = $31.5M

Rationale:
1. Uses only numbers Debbie herself stated or would agree with
2. Domain at $18M (midpoint of her brokers' range)
3. Media at $8.5M (midpoint of her "$7-10M" statement)
4. My People at $5M (reasonable for early-stage SaaS with proven tech + pipeline)
5. Does NOT depend on unconfirmed revenue figures
6. Closely tracks the 2022 offer range ($9M-$45M, accepted "in between")
7. If Next Chapter achieves anything above $31.5M, the 20% kicker rewards the outperformance

If Debbie confirms the $42.6M revenue figure, "x" can be adjusted upward.


WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE FEE STRUCTURE

Transaction Value Fee Calculation Total Fee
$25M (below FMV) 5% x $25M $1.25M
$31.5M (at FMV) 5% x $31.5M $1.575M
$45M (above FMV) 5% x $31.5M + 20% x $13.5M $4.275M
$65M (strategic premium) 5% x $31.5M + 20% x $33.5M $8.275M
$100M (bidding war) 5% x $31.5M + 20% x $68.5M $15.275M

The 20% kicker creates massive alignment:
- Next Chapter is incentivized to find strategic buyers who pay above market
- Debbie pays a reasonable 5% for a standard sale
- If Next Chapter creates extraordinary value through competitive bidding, they share in the upside
- This is better for Debbie than a flat 5-10% commission at any price


GAPS TO CONFIRM WITH DEBBIE

Before finalizing the proposal, these numbers must be confirmed:

  1. HR.com annual revenue -- Is the $42.6M (Latka) accurate? This changes everything.
  2. HR.com member count -- Is the 1.92M (Latka) accurate?
  3. Current employee headcount -- LinkedIn shows ~299, need confirmation
  4. EBITDA in actual dollars -- She confirmed profitable, Ewing implied 20% margin
  5. Revenue trend -- She said "used to be a lot bigger" -- what was peak? What is current?
  6. My People burn rate -- How much is HR.com subsidizing monthly?
  7. 2022 accepted offer amount -- She said "in between" $9M and $45M -- what was it?

Analysis prepared using multi-LLM consensus verification (OpenAI, Mistral, Groq), web-sourced comparable transactions, and verified transcript facts. Total analysis cost: $0.08.