Air Control

Agenda

1. Introduction — who Next Chapter is and why we reached out to Air Control specifically
2. Learn about Fred's journey — 18 years building Air Control from the ground up in McLean
3. Understand Fred's current priorities — growth plans, succession thinking, or lifestyle goals
4. Share what we're seeing in the HVAC M&A market without pressure or commitment
5. Discuss whether a follow-up conversation makes sense and what that would look like

Objectives ☐

• Understand Fred Lowry's personal goals — is he thinking about an exit, a partner, or scaling further?
• Learn what Air Control's customer mix looks like — residential vs. commercial, service vs. install, recurring vs. one-time
• Gauge whether Fred has been approached by buyers before and how he felt about it
• Determine if there are operational pain points (hiring, scaling, admin burden) that a transaction could solve
• Establish trust and credibility so Fred sees Next Chapter as his advisor, not another cold caller

Talking Points

• Air Control's $3M revenue with a 5-person team is remarkable — $600K per employee is 2-4x the industry average, which tells us Fred runs a tight, premium operation
• McLean and Fairfax County is one of the most desirable HVAC markets in the country — high household income, homeowners who invest in quality, and low price sensitivity
• PE-backed HVAC platforms completed over 200 acquisitions in 2024 and are on pace to exceed that in 2025 — the Mid-Atlantic is a priority geography for several active buyers
• An 18-year track record with consistent ownership is exactly what acquirers value most — it signals a real business, not a job with a logo
• We work exclusively with owners of home services companies, so we understand the difference between what a business is worth on paper and what it takes to actually close a deal that works for the owner

Questions to Ask

1. Fred, what made you start Air Control back in 2008 — and what keeps you excited about it today?
2. With your experience going back to 1990, you've seen every cycle in this industry. Where do you think things are headed for independent operators?
3. Have you ever been approached by a buyer or a competitor looking to acquire? What was that experience like?
4. If you could design the perfect next chapter for yourself — whether that's staying, selling, or something in between — what would that look like?
5. What does your team of five look like — are there key people who run jobs independently, or does the operation depend heavily on you being in the field?
6. How much of your revenue comes from repeat customers and maintenance agreements vs. new installs?
7. Is there anything about the business today that frustrates you or that you wish you could hand off to someone else?

What We Bring

• Next Chapter is a boutique M&A advisory firm that works exclusively with owners of home services businesses — HVAC, plumbing, roofing, and similar trades
• We currently see valuations for well-run HVAC companies in premium markets ranging from $2.1M to $4.8M depending on financials, customer concentration, and operator dependency
• There are 8-10 PE-backed platforms actively acquiring HVAC companies in the Mid-Atlantic right now, including Sila, Orion Group, and Apex Service Partners
• Our process is confidential — we never name a company to buyers without the owner's explicit permission, and we handle the entire process so it doesn't disrupt daily operations
• There is zero obligation from a discovery conversation — we're here to answer questions and share market intelligence whether Fred decides to explore a sale or not

Danger Zones

• Do NOT bring up the small team size as a weakness — frame 5 employees as lean and efficient, never as a limitation
• Do NOT push Fred toward a timeline or imply urgency — discovery meetings are about listening, not closing
• Do NOT discuss specific valuation numbers unless Fred asks directly — too early to anchor on price before we understand the full financial picture
• Do NOT mention competitors in McLean or imply market pressure — Fred's 18-year presence speaks for itself
• Do NOT assume Fred wants to sell — he may want a partial exit, a growth partner, or just market intelligence
• Avoid the phrase 'succession planning' — it can feel like someone is telling you to retire

If Positive → Next Steps

• Schedule a follow-up meeting within 7 days to walk through the confidential process in detail
• Request permission to prepare a preliminary valuation analysis based on Air Control's financials
• Send Fred a one-page overview of Next Chapter's process, timeline, and confidentiality protections
• Begin building the Tier 1 buyer list of PE-backed HVAC platforms with active Mid-Atlantic mandates
• Introduce the idea of a Confidential Information Memorandum and what Fred would need to provide

If Not Ready → Next Steps

• Thank Fred for his time and leave the door open — 'If anything changes in six months or six years, we're a phone call away'
• Offer to send a quarterly HVAC market update so we stay in touch without being pushy
• Add Fred to the NC-SELL-LETTER nurture campaign for periodic market intelligence mailings
• Note his specific objections or timing concerns in the CRM for future outreach calibration
• Ask if he knows any other HVAC owners in the area who might be thinking about their options — a referral ask costs nothing and keeps the relationship warm